Konstfacks bibliotek : The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable

Hylla	Br
Personnamn	Taleb, Nassim Nicholas,
Titel och upphov	The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable
Utgivning, distribution etc.	Random House, New York : cop. 2007
Utgivningsår	2007
	Språk: Engelska.
DDC klassifikationskod (Dewey Decimal Classification)	003/.54
SAB klassifikationskod	00A 62-01 60-01 Brb Op
Upplaga	1. ed.
Fysisk beskrivning	xxviii, 366 s. ill. 25 cm
Anmärkning: Allmän	Pocketutg., 2008
Anmärkning: Bibliografi etc.	Includes bibliographical references (p. [331]-358) and index
Anmärkning: Innehåll	Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans.
Term	Informationsteori Framtidsstudier Forecasting Uncertainty (Information theory) Information theory
ISBN	9781400063512 1400063515 9780812979183
Antal i kö:	0 (0)

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*650 0$aForecasting
*650 0$aUncertainty (Information theory)$xSocial aspects
*650 0$aInformation theory
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The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called "On Robustness and Fragility."

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan.